Job creation fragility and transition to work in Uganda: Evidence from parametric and non-parametric duration models

Abstract

Job creation continues to be a prime objective of governments both in developed and emerging nations. However, transition to work represents a crucial yet insufficiently explored aspect within the domain of labour and employment planning. With a strong emphasis on job creation, this study explores the factors that influence the length of the transition period to first employment in Uganda. Using a combination of parametric and non-parametric duration models, the results show that the transition period to first employment is influenced by the country’s ability to create jobs and the skills of the labour force. According to the study, the country’s existing capacity for employment generation is associated with a lengthier transition period. This is due to the extremely constrained job creation environment and the high level of economic fragility. The study also showed that individuals who worked as technicians experienced unemployment for shorter periods than people who worked as professionals. The study consequently urges the government of Uganda to make employment creation a priority by incorporating employment targets into the nation’s macroeconomic framework. Second, government policy should encourage the uptake of technical and vocational skilling, which is consistent with a shorter transition period to employment.