Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues (ISSN: 2958-6313)

Job creation fragility and transition to work in Uganda: Evidence from parametric and non-parametric duration models

K. Ssebulime , E. Bbaale, M.I. Okumu — Wed, 20 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Job creation continues to be a prime objective of governments both in developed and emerging nations. However, transition to work represents a crucial yet insufficiently explored aspect within the domain of labour and employment planning. With a strong emphasis on job creation, this study explores the factors that influence the length of the transition period to first employment in Uganda. Using a combination of parametric and non-parametric duration models, the results show that the transition period to first employment is influenced by the country’s ability to create jobs and the skills of the labour force. According to the study, the country’s existing capacity for employment generation is associated with a lengthier transition period. This is due to the extremely constrained job creation environment and the high level of economic fragility. The study also showed that individuals who worked as technicians experienced unemployment for shorter periods than people who worked as professionals. The study consequently urges the government of Uganda to make employment creation a priority by incorporating employment targets into the nation’s macroeconomic framework. Second, government policy should encourage the uptake of technical and vocational skilling, which is consistent with a shorter transition period to employment.

FDI inflows and stock market development in Nigeria

O. K. Adeleke — Wed, 20 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

This paper investigated the impact of FDI on stock market performance in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2021 using the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique. The findings suggest that FDI has a positive and significant effect on stock market both in the short run and in the long run. External debt was negative and significant in the short run but became positive and significant with the stock market in the long run. Interest rate had a negative and significant effect on stock market performance in the short run but had a positive and nonsignificant effect on stock market performance in the long run. Inflation was seen to be positive but not significant both in the short and long run. Consequently, this study recommends the following: the drive for inflow of FDI into Nigeria should be intensified in order to further improve stock market performance; the government should employ well-structured external debt policies and channel funds to the stock market in order to promote stock market performance.

The gendered impacts of COVID-19 and business closure due to lockdown on wage employment in Kenya

Wed, 20 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

The COVID-19 crisis has had a huge shock on labor markets worldwide. However, systematic quantitative evidence documenting the impacts of the pandemic and of the associated government containment measures on employment in African countries, particularly Kenya, is lacking. Using high-frequency panel data survey data for 2020/2021 on COVID-19 in Kenya collected by the World Bank, in collaboration with the Kenyan National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the University of California, Berkeley, this study analyses the impacts of Covid-19 incidence, Covid-19 vulnerability, and business closure due to the government containment measures/lockdown on participation in wage employment. Regression results show that the COVID-19 incidence, the COVID-19 vulnerability, and the business lockdowns had large, negative impacts on paid work, with the males having a significantly increased the probability of wage employment compared to females. We argue that men with Covid-19 infection or symptoms engage in paid work at a higher rate relative to women – with the same condition. It is not clear whether the men’s labor market behavior detected in this data set is due to a greater ability to bear risk or to risk preference.

The impact of climate variability and change on farm productivity in Mazowe district, Zimbabwe: An exploration of farmers’ adaptation strategies

J.T. Mupfawi, S. Mufandaedza , Z. Tambudzai — Sun, 31 Dec 2023 00:00:00 +0000

The primary aim of this study was to examine the perceived impact of climate variation and change on agricultural productivity using the Mazowe district as a case study. The study's specific goals were to ascertain farmers' level of knowledge regarding the effects of climate variability and change, examine how farmers perceive these effects on farming output, and ascertain how climate adaptation strategies affect agricultural production. A cross-sectional research design and a mixed-method technique were used to investigate the impact of climate change. Qualitative and quantitative data was collected using interviews with key informants and semi-structured survey questions. Commercial farmers, extension agents, district administrators, district representatives from the Agricultural and Rural Development Authority, district representatives from the Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water, Climate and Rural Development, as well as district Grain Marketing Board (GMB) officials in the Mazowe district were included in the study's target audience. Both simple random sampling and purposeful sampling were used in the investigation. The study found that while climate change had a negative influence on agricultural production, adaptation to the shift had a considerable positive benefit. According to the study, farmers were also aware of the negative effects and potential dangers of climate variability and change. The study recommended education and training programs for farmers regarding the impacts of climate variation and change to ensure the adoption of innovative adaptive strategies such as smart agriculture, artificial insemination, and underground water harvesting.

Economic implications of external monetary policy shocks for Lesotho: An empirical investigation

M.R. Malefane — Mon, 22 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

This paper investigates the responses of Lesotho’s economic growth and inflation to monetary policy shocks emanating from the USA. Among the countries that Lesotho’s economy is integrated into, the USA stands out as the key export destination claiming a substantial share of Lesotho’s textile and clothing exports, according to historical data. Using the structural vector autoregression analysis, the results show that Lesotho’s inflation temporarily increased following a shock to the USA monetary policy rate. Moreover, Lesotho’s economic growth, measured by growth in the real gross domestic product (GDP), decreased over the horizon following a shock to the United States monetary policy rate. The effect on Lesotho’s economic growth can be attributed to declines in demand for Lesotho’s exports that have largely characterised periods of economic crises in the USA including the recent trade war between the USA and China, which according to the Central Bank of Lesotho, has been a major source of significant declines in Lesotho’s manufacturing production among other factors. Given that Lesotho is a small open economy operating under a fixed exchange rate regime where the Loti is pegged to the Rand, policy options available for Lesotho to mitigate external shocks could encompass the identification of additional buffers targeted at diverting the country’s capital to the most productive sectors other than clothing and textiles sub-sector. Policymakers in Lesotho could also exploit avenues to expand intra-regional trade with countries in both the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).